印度媒体乐了：华裔学者说印度发展比中国实在

印度斯坦时报网站9月2日发表文章，原题为India’s Nano better than China’s glitz, says MIT don（麻省理工学院教授：印度的Nano比中国的华而不实好），文章所提到的麻省理工学院教授是一位华裔。文章摘要如下，英语原文附后：

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　　在印度政界人士最喜欢下榻的北京一家豪华酒店的大堂，一名华人学者把身子挪到椅子边上说：“印度人总是认为，中国的发展令人难以置信。我对他们说，对这不要太当真。”
　　周一，正当印度在为出现经济复苏的迹象而欢欣鼓舞的时候，中国股市却再次暴跌。但是，听到一个生于北京的人这样坦率的讲话实属罕见。他接着说，世界第三大经济体几乎空置的摩天大楼是“定时炸弹”印度不应照搬。
　　美国麻省理工学院政治经济学教授黄亚生最近访问了新德里，其间他问印度的规划者，在这个与中国相比基础设施非常糟糕的国家，经济却能多年保持增长，他们对此作何解释？
　　黄亚生去年写了一本新书《有中国特色的资本主义》，他在书中对这个共产党国家的经济奇迹进行了评论，黄亚生说：“总的来说我更喜欢印度，印度不是一门心思搞基础设施建设，而是发展教育和社会部门。印度人对于中国的GDP数字印象深刻，但是GDP只能说明部分问题。”
　　自8月初以来，中国股市不断暴跌，因为人们担心信贷会受到限制。今年上半年，中国的银行放贷比去年全年还多，已经超过今年的目标。经济刺激计划主要是进行新的基础设施建设，但是黄亚生说中国不需要这些，“中国显然正在进行重复建设。正在创造的实际价值非常少。我们不是在谈新技术、创新……从根本上说是在搞重复建设”。
　　黄亚生表示，经济剌激计划只能延误改革。他说：“国营部门在前进，而私营部门却在后退。在一个泡沫还没有破裂的基础上，资产市场泡沫又在形成。”中国经济增长率从第一季度的6.1%升至第二季度的7.9%，但是这个国家仍然存在1200万个就业缺口。外国直接投资连续10个月下降。现在，中国政府正在采取行动，努力控制钢铁业等关键部门的产能过剩。
　　黄亚生说，由于私营部门的发展势头比较强劲，印度与中国相比具有优势，“印度需要沿着私有化和放松管制的现有道路继续走下去。中国需要积极采取行动，彻底改变一直以来的做法。但是这比较难”。

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　　环顾两侧都是北京最昂贵商店的大堂，这位教授对于中国痴迷豪华品牌的做法直摇头，“印度的收入增长非常可观。中产阶级购买的都是像Nano汽车这样适当的东西。在中国，有人突然暴富，谁也不知道他们的钱是怎么挣来的”。(记者雷什马•帕蒂尔发自北京)

Reshma Patil , Hindustan Times
Email Author
Beijing, September 02, 2009
First Published: 00:15 IST(2/9/2009)
Last Updated: 00:26 IST(2/9/2009)
India’s Nano better than China’s glitz, says MIT don
Inside the lobby of a Beijing luxury hotel favoured by visiting Indian politicians, a Chinese academic moved to the edge of his chair and said, “Indians have this unbelievable idea of China. I tell them not to take it too seriously".
On Monday, while India was cheering signs of an economic recovery, the Chinese stock markets were in nosedive again.
But it’s rare to hear such frank talk from someone born in Beijing, a person who goes on to say that the near-empty skyscrapers in the world’s third-largest economy are “time-bombs” India shouldn’t copy.
When Yasheng Huang, professor of political economy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, recently visited New Delhi he asked Indian planners how they could explain years of steady growth in a nation whose infrastructure compared so poorly to China’s.
Huang last year wrote Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics, a critique of the communist nation’s economic miracle.
Last year, he started the India Lab to help select entrepreneurs improve their business management. He also runs an older China Lab, which partly funds the India operations.
“As a whole, I favour India. The challenges in India are not the ones people are obsessed with, like infrastructure, but education and social sector development," he said. “Indians are very impressed by China’s GDP figures. But the GDP data tells only part of the story."
Indian planners may envy China’s $ 585 billion dollar stimulus, about 20 times the size of India’s, Huang is unimpressed.
Its about the worst kind of stimulus package you can get, he said. “I was surprised by the scale of the bad decision, not the bad decision per se."
Since early August, the Chinese stock market is tumbling amid fears of curbs on official credit. In the first half of this year, Chinese banks issued more long-term loans than they did all of last year and have already exceeded this year’s
lending target. Most of the stimulus will finance new infrastructure but Huang says that isn’t what China needs. “China is clearly overbuilding. Very little real value is being created. We’re not talking of new technology, innovation...essentially more of the same.”
The stimulus is only delaying reforms, says Huang. “The state sector is advancing and the private sector is retreating. It’s creating an asset market bubble on top of a bubble that has not been burst."
China’s economy grew from 6.1 per cent in the first quarter to 7.9 per cent in the second quarter, but the nation is still short of 12 million jobs. Foreign direct investment has fallen for 10 straight months. China’s cabinet is now moving to curb overcapacity in key sectors like steel.
A stronger private sector gives India an edge over China, says Huang. “India needs to plod ahead on the existing course of privatisation and deregulation. China needs to actively reverse what it has been doing, which is harder."
Glancing around the lobby flanked by Beijing’s most expensive stores, the professor shook his head over the Chinese obsession with luxury brands.
“India’s income growth is very respectable. The middle-class is buying appropriate purchases like Nano cars. In China, there is a sudden burst of wealth. Nobody knows how they made the money”.
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